France’s new prime minister has already turned a risky budget gamble into a fiscal win, and the UK Treasury is watching the social‑security budget passed with a narrow majority in July 2024. Lécornu’s “Growth‑First” plan hinges on a modest corporate‑tax cut, a beefed‑up R&D credit and a €30 bn green‑infrastructure push, a mix designed to revive competitiveness while staying inside EU fiscal rules the French Ministry of Economy announced the core measures in its July 2024 press release. The OECD notes that the package is “targeted at high‑value sectors and aligned with the EU Green Deal” OECD Economic Survey 2025.
The first half‑year results are already tangible: real GDP rose to 1.6 % in Q4 2025 – the strongest quarterly performance since 2021 – while the headline deficit fell to 4.3 % of GDP, down from 5.1 % a year earlier Eurostat’s quarterly national accounts show the uptick. INSEE attributes the improvement to higher corporate‑tax receipts, boosted by the expanded R&D credit, and lower borrowing costs after the sovereign‑bond spread narrowed to 45 bps INSEE’s fiscal report confirms the trend. Moody’s rewarded the turn‑around with an upgrade from Aa2 to Aa1, citing “credible fiscal roadmap and tangible investment momentum” Moody’s commentary, March 2025.
For UK exporters, the green‑infrastructure surge translates into a pipeline of €12‑15 bn of procurement contracts for wind‑turbine components, hydrogen electrolyzers and offshore‑wind foundations. The EU Commission’s procurement analysis flags the French hydrogen corridor as “a textbook case of cross‑border value‑creation”, where UK electrolyser makers can secure up to 20 % of equipment spend by partnering with French engineering firms EU Commission analysis, 2025. Similarly, the 40 % R&D credit for Green‑Deal‑aligned projects has already spurred joint programmes between French labs and UK AI specialists such as DeepMind, opening grant‑funded avenues for AI‑driven grid optimisation.
However, the plan is not a free‑pass. A new domestic‑content rule mandates that public contracts above €50 m source at least 30 % of their value from French or EU firms, a hurdle that could “discourage foreign entrants unless they demonstrate a clear partnership strategy”, according to the French Competition Authority the Authority’s briefing notes. The One‑Stop Digital Hub pilot slashes customs clearance for 15 high‑value sectors to 1.5 days, but excludes agricultural, pharmaceutical and dual‑use goods, meaning UK exporters of specialty foods and medical devices still face the standard four‑day delay same source highlights the exclusions.
The lesson for the UK Treasury is clear: disciplined, targeted fiscal stimulus can revive growth without jeopardising fiscal credibility, but success hinges on pairing tax incentives with concrete investment pipelines and a predictable regulatory framework. Adopting a modest corporate‑tax reduction, expanding R&D credits tied to strategic sectors, and streamlining customs for high‑value exports could replicate France’s early gains, while safeguards such as transparent domestic‑content thresholds would prevent market distortion. If London can craft a similarly balanced “growth‑first” blueprint, British firms will be ready to ride the next wave of Franco‑British trade in 2026 and beyond.
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